Risk hazard prediction

In your hazard groups, you want to focus on specific prediction methods used to identify when and severity of hazard event:

WHEN:

• Typically it forms during the summer and fall because the ocean temperatures are the warmest at those times
• Most frequent in August and September
• In the Atlantic, the official season is from June 1 to November 30
• In the Southern Hemisphere, it run  from November 1 to the end of April and most frequent in mid-February to early March

WHERE:

• It forms in tropical regions (where there is warm water, moist air and wind)
• ITCZ (intertropical convergence zone)
• Ocean surface temperature is above 26/27 Celcuis Degrees
• Storms will only form once you get poleward of the Equator by four to five degrees
• the Caribbean: hurricane develops

Hazards and disasters – CASE STUDY

Tropical Cyclone Nargis in Burma (Myanmar)

Spatial extent: On the evening of May 2, 2008, cyclone attacked the capital city of Burma, Yangon. This city is very populated with more than 4 million people. It first formed in the Bay of Bengal and moved toward the land of Burma.The picture above shows the area affected by Cyclone Nargis. The cities such as Yangon, Thaton and Mawlamyaing were the most affected cities.

Magnitude: Usually it is a weak storm which is Category 1 but due to warm water and lack of wind, that storm grew and became cyclone. At some point, this cyclone was Category 4. Category 4 is known as causing roof structural failure on small residences, heavy damage and near complete destruction of buildings, and flooding. Because it was Category 4, it blew away 700,000 houses and buildings and caused the damage to the infrastructure. This cyclone weakened before coming to the inshore but it still carried powerful winds and heavy rain.

Duration: This only lasted for a week in total.

Speed of onset: According to Unisys Weather, wind exceeded 210 kilometers per hour, which is 130 miles per hour. 

Effects: Because of this cyclone, over 134,000 people died and around 95% of all buildings were destroyed. 15 townships had suffered the most, seven of them had lost 90 to 95% of their homes. Still 54,000 people are missing in Burma. After this cyclone, Burmese officials prevented foreigners from entering the affected areas, so French and US naval ships who brought aid supplies for affected areas had to wait for more than two weeks to enter and distribute those aid supplies. Also the government concerned about health issues which caused by Cyclone Nargis. The health issues include bird flu, HIV/AIDS, outbreaks of mosquito and water-borne diseases. Also power and telecommunication were destroyed and road/street for transportation became impassable. Also it was very difficult to obtain clean water after the cyclone in affected areas. Even food supplies were limited.

4.

In Burma, the most of residents live in shanty settlements and those housing can be easily destroyed by the hazard. Also nearly 2 million of the densely packed area’s inhabitants live on land that is less than 5 m above sea level, leaving them extremely vulnerable. When people live in poorly constructed building and not safe environment, there will be more damage and causes other hazards such as spreading diseases and shortage of clean water and food. Therefore people who live in shanty settlements are vulnerable to hazard. Also since Burma is classified as LEDCs, the population size of younger people is greater than elder/older people. When population of children is huge, women tend to be caregivers to those children, therefore, they are another vulnerable group.

Hazard and disaster

Droughts

Drought = a long period of dry weather which some areas experience a shortage of precipitation. This occurs when small amount of water vapour rises to the air, which is stable air. A stable air is when a parcel of air can’t rise so that clouds and rain unlikely to form in the air. A unstable air is when a parcel of air can rise so it causes to form clouds and rainfall. Also lapse rates is significantly related to droughts. It measures the relationship between temperature and altitude. On the graph, we will see that the air becomes cooler with increasing altitude.

• Environment lapse rate (ELR): Measures the rate at which the air becomes cooler and this rate can vary based on time of day, weather conditions and location. It is about 6 to 6.5 ℃ per 1000 m. Therefore, when the temperature of ground level is 30℃ the air temperature at 1000 m becomes 24 ℃.
• Dry adiabatic rate (DAR): this rate is when a parcel of dry air rises, it increases in volume and decreases in temperature. This rate shows how the temperature of dry air decreases as attitude gets higher. It is always -10℃ per 1000 m.
• If body of air rises too much, it might have to cool down at some point were it becomes saturated. This point is called dew point. Because the spaces between the molecules of air cannot hold water vapour anymore, the air cools at slower rate. This slower rate is called wet adiabatic lapse rate. This is fixed rate of 5.5 C per 1000 m.

STABLE air when ELR < DAR

• This occurs when there is high pressure (anticyclones) –> air descends, it warms up and doesn’t make precipitation
• High pressure occurs where ocean currents are cool (≠ tropical cyclones form)
• High air pressure sinking, warming dry air
• temperature cannnot reach dew point (temperature at which air cannot hold water vapor), therefore, air pressure drops

UNSTABLE air when ELR > DAR

• Low air pressure  – rising, cooling, wet air –> this causes typhoon/hurricane/cyclone
• When temperature reaches dew point, it continues to rise at the slower rate.

Spatial extent:

• Mostly Australia, Brazil, China, Middle East, the Philippines, eastern and southern Africa, Central America and some parts of the US

Predictibility:

• Variable rainfall
• Depends on the spatial elements of the area

Frequency:

• Dry areas and arid condition
• subtropical high pressure area (around 20 – 30 N)
• Distance from sea  (continentality) limits the amount of water carried across by winds
• cold offshore currents limits the amount of condensation into the overlying air  example: Atacama and Namib deserts
• human activities affect the frequency of droughts –> desertification

Magnitude:

• Lack of rain causes
• absolute drought (a period of at least 15 consecutive days with less than 0.2 mm of rainfall)
• partial drought (a period of at least 29 days with the average day rainfall not exceeding 0.2 mm of rainfall)

Duration:

• About 15 days – 3 years
• Even decades

Speed of onset:

• This depends on the climate and spatial elements
• usually long and slow drought one takes more than months

Effects:

• In 2003, 30,000 people died in France due to heatwave and this caused 30% to 50% of decrease in harvests. Also more people demanded for electricity.
• In Europe, wheat production was down 10 million tonnes, which is about 10%
• In Lisbon, temperature reached 43C in August and temperature 15C is higher than the average temperature
• 35,000 ha of forest, farmland and scrub were burned
• In Africa, the world’s largest emergency food aid programme was in operation

Conservation Strategies

Evaluation a strategy at a local or national scale aimed at reducing the consumption of one resource.

Wind power (turbines) reducing the use of oil

“Wind has become an increasingly attractive source of renewable energy – wind energy is the world’s fastest-growing energy technology…The strongest winds in the United States tend to be in Alaska, the western United States, and the Appalachians. Wind power currently supplies about 1% of United States electricity needs, but capacity is expanding rapidly. Although wind will contribute more to the United States electric supply in the future, like hydropower it cannot be expected to supply all of our electric needs.

advantage: no pollution, can have farm at the same time (productivity), renewable

disadvantage: expensive

http://www.nationalatlas.gov/articles/people/a_energy.html#two

Peak oil

1. One conflict over oil (who, background, current status) and find one piece of information about Peak Oil (who said it and the significance)

The availability of oil worldwide has already peaked, the European Union’s energy chief Guenther Oettinger said on Wednesday.

“My fear is that the global consumption of oil is going to increase, but European oil consumption has already reached its peak. The amount of oil available globally, I think, has already peaked,” Oettinger told a news briefing in Brussels.

EU energy chief: Worldwide oil availability has peaked

 

Conflict over oil in Japan and China

there is oil resource in the East China sea.

“While much of America’s attention has been focused on hurricanes, the Supreme Court, the close German election and unpredictable North Korea, Japan and China have continued their fighting over natural resources beneath the East China Sea. Both of these economic powers claim different boundaries for their exclusive economic zones (EEZ)surrounding each country.

Now, according to the Japan Times, China has begun extracting natural gas or oil from an area of the East China Sea near a disputed boundary with Japan.

He was presenting a new EU energy strategy for investing 1 trillion euros over the next decade in a common EU energy network, to curb the bloc’s dependence on fossil fuel imports.”

Growth theories

Neo-Malthusian: non-renewable resources are finite and therefore exhaustible, population growth will reduce resources

Malthus

l  1798: “Essay on the Principle of Population”

l  belief: a finite optimum population size in relation to food supply. And that any increase in population beyond this point would lead to decline in the standard of living = resource is limited as population increases

à population increases at a geometric/exponential rate

àfood supply increases at a arithmetic rate

Paul Enrlich: relationship between population size and resource consumption

Belief: limited resources keep populations in check and reduce economic growth à population growth should be controlled

l   1968: published “The Population Bomb” = famine due to lack of resources

l   Even it happens, there will be new ways to find new resources/new ways of getting existing resources more cheaply

l   did not happen because 1970’s Green Revolution (genetically modified food/ higher yields)

Club of Rome – headed by Dennis Meadows

l   1972: published “The Limits of Growth” = combination of population growth and finite natural resources creates mass misery

 

Anti-Malthusians:

Julian Simon (used statistics and historical examples to support his ideas)

l   1996: “The Ultimate Resource 2” = true measure of scarcity is not the physical quantity of a resource but price   EX: petrol prices rise if it becomes scarcer

à the price of natural resources is decreasing, which shows resources are abundant

l   1996: only living standards would improve

Harold Hotelling

l   1931: real price of oil and resources would rise as the amount left on earth decreased

àHOWEVER the price of petrol has declined steadily in the long-term

l   because of a combination of new discoveries, recycling, new technology

l   the prices of natural resources have declined over time, indicating greater abundance

1980: A bet between Julian Simon and Paul Enrlich

Julian Simon’s view: the prices of natural resources would become cheaper rather than more expensive over the next years

l   if natural resources were to become scarcer, the prices should rise

Julian Simon won the bet

l   1980-1990: the prices of all five minerals fell

Bjorn Lomborg

l   2001: “The Sceptical Environmentalist” = the world’s environmental situation and resource use are getting worse

l   Selective and misleading use of scientific data to influence decisions about the allocation of limited resources  à his idea is controversial

l   The cost of dealing with global warming is so high and benefits so limited

à more effective spend directly to improve the standard of living in LEDCs.

Boserup (1901-1999)

l  Belief: people know ways to increase food production because of the resources of knowledge and technology EX: fish farming, growing crops in greehouses, high-yield varieties of plants etc

 

The difference in reurbanization, suburbanization, counterurbanization, and urbanization

reurbanization – the development of activities to increase residential population densities within the existing built up area of a city

suburbanization – the outward growth of towns and cities to engulf surrounding villages and rural areas. This can result in urban sprawl and leads to increase of transportation

counterurbanization – A process involving the movement of population away from inner urban areas to a new town, a new estate, a commuter town or a village on the edge or just beyond the city limits.

urbanization – the process by which an increasing percentage of a country’s population comes to live in towns and cities. This includes rural-urban migration and natural increase.

EGYPT: Ecological footprint

Ecological footprint(global hectares per capita): 1.7 (2002)

Biocapacity(global hectares per capita): 0.6

deficit: 1.1

bc is smaller than ef = not sustainable

Unsustainability occurs if the area’s ecological footprint exceeds its biocapacity.

ecological footprint

Anti-malthusian and Neo-malthusian

This graph shows the price and world production of aluminium in 1880 – 1990 (textbook page 149). The price of natural resources is declining but the world production is increasing over time. As there are many resources, the price becomes cheaper because there is more than abundant. Therefore, this supports anti-Malthusian since this clearly proves Julia Simon’s view, the price of almost every natural resource is decreasing, indicating that resources are becoming less scarce/more abundant.

Population Trends

POPULATION TRENDS

1. Looking at “Global Population Change 1930-2020” describe the trend(s) and explain any anomalies.

Global population change 1930 – 2020 shows the most regions population change increased between 1930 – 1960 and 1960 – 1990. Most countries have highest population change during 1960 to 1990 (except North America and Europe). These countries are Africa, South America, Australasia, Asia and CIS. The population change in 1930 to 1960 in those countries are below 2.5%, however, they all increased during 1960 to 1990. The highest population change is about 1.5 in Africa. During 1990 to 2020, the population change decreased in those countries. There are two anomalies; North America and Europe. Those countries didn’t really experience great change of population and it is because they are already developed that this bar graph didn’t show the population change of MEDCs.

2.Looking at “Exponential Growth” and “Demographic Change and Global Trends” what do you predict will happen to the world population in the next 10-20 years globally and regionally?

Globally, the world population will still grow in the next 10-20 years since it is growing very rapidly but regionally, the population is growing rapidly especially in LEDCs. According to Exponential Growth, South Asia and East Asia are the covering more than half of 10,000 million world population. Those two regions are the major regions that increased the population the most. On the other hand, USSR, CIS, North America and Europe, those MEDCs are the least countries that increased the population. Even Demographic change and global trends shows that Africa, Asia and Latin America are the countries that have high CBR, CDR and annual growth rate compare to other countries. For Africa, it marked the highest CBR which is nearly 50 per 1000 and has highest CDR as well, which is nearly 30 per 1000. Even though its CBR and CDR have declined over time, Africa still has the highest CBR and CDR among other countries. Asia and Latin America have the similar situations as Africa but their CDRs became lower than Europe, North America and Oceania in 2000 to 2005. Even their CBRs are close to those MEDCs. The world’s population will still continue growing but only some countries in LEDCs and less population growth in MEDCs in the next 10 to 20 years.